A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
